Thursday, July 17, 2008

The best thing we can be is underestimated

You all know the headlines...
Indymac failure, Sovereign funds cut exposure to weak dollar, China investing in the Euro, off balance sheet transactions, food crops going to bio-fuels driving up their commodity prices, increased fuel costs of 50%+ this year driving up the cost of everything, inflation highest in 26 years, Dubai buys the Chrysler building, Real Estate values continue downwards with no end in sight, the Fed's credibility itself being questioned....$700 billion/yr headed to the ME, Fed underwrites Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac with newly printed magic, Dems reject AGAIN new drilling offshore (and everything else including wind..see Teddy).......

worst of all... the fuel costs have finally not only curtailed our driving and changed our car buying habits, but has it changed the habit of the most important people in the world?
mall.JPGIf the american consumer spends less disposable income out there in order to reserve suddenly against future oil price increases, or heating this winter, or simply a reduced confidence...then the oil nations, China, Russia, the EU everyone is screwed. Oh there are plenty of other consumers, but nobody in Magnitogorsk, or Chungking will be lining up for the 42" 1080p's like we do, and if we stop, nobody anywhere else will HAVE an income to spend, and except for the few royals headed for Switzerland, the Bedouin can return to their former happy lives. UAE seems to have done some planning and might escape, but I doubt tourism will survive in so distant a place. Chavez will be looking up at the piano wire, and lamppost top above his feet as the true horror of their new situation hits the Venezuelans.

But take heart... as usual we have been underestimated. Bush announces lifting the oil drill ban, and oil drops $10/barrel, stocks surge.

That tells us the market is looking for LEADERSHIP.

If it will not be provided by an executive in govt, some folks in the nation WILL, I assure you, develop a battery or other device which will recharge in 30 minutes and run a car for 12 hours, at highway speeds. Some lab will come up with a way to gasify coal or burn it more cleanly. Some university group of young people will develop a hydrogen fuel cell which weighs 30 lbs and can develop 100 HP. Or we will develop very low loss transmission from new nuclear plants to recharge those new batteries for our electric vehicles.

And then OPEC will look like the salt monopoly.

Salt monopoly?

Who ever heard of that? Oh that group that was wiped out by refrigeration?

Exactly.


1 comment:

BabbaZee said...

when the days of torches and pitchforks arriveth

my stash of kosher salt will be worth plenty I tells ya

LOL