Tuesday, October 30, 2012

File under: Someone’s credibility and judgement is REALLY going bye bye

  1. Gallup shows Romney +5% at 51-46, and has not shown Romney below 50% in a while.
  2. Gallup has 3,300 respondents (compared to 500-100 in a normal survey) of those who HAVE already voted, showing Romney 52-47
  3. Gallup shows Romney +2 in Ohio today
  4. Rasmussen shows Romney +2 in Ohio today
  5. The RCP avg for Ohio is locked, STILL, into polls from Time and others over a week old. Is this accurate?
And then ….
Nate Silver, ‘supergenius’, NYT 538 blog, from Politico:

Nate Silver: One-term celebrity?

Nate Silver could be a one-term celebrity.
The New York Times’s resident political predictor says President BarackObamacurrently has a 74.6 percent chance of winning reelection. It’s a prediction that liberals, whose heart rates continue to fluctuate with the release of every new poll, want to take solace in but somehow can’t. Sure, this is the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election in 49 of 50 states, but this year’s polls suggest a nailbiter.“Romney, clearly, could still win,” Silver told POLITICO today.
Prediction is the name of Silver’s game, the basis for his celebrity. So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning (way back on June 2) and — one week from the election — gives him a one-in-four chance, even as the polls have him almost neck-and-neck with the incumbent.Silver cautions against confusing prediction with prophecy. “If the Giants lead the Redskins 24-21 in the fourth quarter, it’s a close game that either team could win. But it’s also not a “toss-up”: The Giants are favored. It’s the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Hence, he’s the favorite,” Silver said.
Ahem, have a cup of coffee and get up a little earlier, Nate.
Maybe, just MAYBE, you missed the interception run back for the touchdown while you taking a piss, and then went straight back to that keyboard.
Is this going to be a mini 1980?


Pastorius said...

What do you think the Democratic Party, the NYT, and people like SIlver will do if/when Romney wins, Epa?

Do you think they will try to make the case to take it to the Supreme Court again?

Especially if there is a close outcome in Ohio, which I believe there will be?

Epaminondas said...

They will contest HUNDREDS of precincts until the day before inauguration, and then claim Romney is illegitimate in order to resist after inauguration.
I see unrest.
The best answer is if Gallup is right and it's +7% for Romney because that means it probably will NOT be close in Ohio and some other places.

Even 2% can't be a fraud unless it's a MASSIVE conspiracy. This is not 1960, it won't stay quiet.

Pastorius said...

I was hoping you would not be as paranoid as I am.

I tend to think they're going to milk it as much as they can.

I'm hoping for a blowout so that enthusiasm will not be at a fever pitch.