The Gaza Strip is the home base of Hamas, but there is not a single specific location in Gaza that can be targeted and destroyed in order to bring an end to Hamas. I believe that Israel is dangerously over confident in its bellicose declarations that it will wipe Hamas off the face of the earth. Short of using nukes, Israel will have to send its ground forces into the strip and fight house to house battles. I think many of Israel’s supporters labor under the delusions that Gaza is a small area that can be easily dealt with. It is not.
Let me put this into perspective. The Gaza Strip is 141 square miles in size. Let’s compare it to Iwo Jima — that tiny island is almost 9 square miles. Unlike Iwo Jima — a small island — the Gaza Strip borders Egypt, which means it has a supply route that Israel cannot close unless Israel decides to go to war with Egypt as well. Why do I bring up Iwo Jima? Because the Gaza Strip is ripe with tunnels and bunkers designed to protect Hamas fighters from aerial bombardment. Just as the United States Navy decimated the surface of Iwo Jima, Israel can flatten the dwellings and office buildings crowded into Gaza. But the U.S. Navy failed to destroy the Japanese force hiding below the surface with the naval fusillade. The U.S. Marine Corps had to land on the beaches and fight a bloody month long battle to clear the island.
I think Israel is looking at the equivalent of fighting the Battle of Iwo Jima in the Gaza Strip. Only instead of a month long effort, this battle would likely endure for at least four months — perhaps longer. And Israel will suffer massive casualties. I believe the length of the battle hinges on two critical factors: 1) The ability of Hamas to get resupplied from Egypt with food, weapons and ammunition and 2) The skill and tenacity of Hamas in using anti-tank guided missiles and light artillery effective at short range.
If Hamas replicates the tactics Hezbollah employed against Israel in its 2006 incursion into Southern Lebanon then Israel’s chances of prevailing quickly are slim. Israel’s strategic position will be further complicated if Hezbollah decides to enter the fray ...
4 comments:
A lot depends on the rules of engagement Israel observes. What are they willing to do in the face of an existential crisis on one hand and (unwarranted but certain) international opprobrium on the other.
If Israel demands the UN evacuate its personnel from Gaza pronto you will have your answer.
Another thing that bugs me is the perception that the people of Gaza are packed into a small area like a Sardine can. It is dense but not like most people imagine. Consider:
Manhattan Island 27,250 sqkm
Macau 21,801 sqkm
Monaco 19,250 sqkm
Singapore 8,100 sqkm
Hong Kong 7,042 sqkm
Gaza 5,500 sqkm.
According to everything i read, the Gaza strip is 140 square miles, which is 362 square kilometers.
Manharttan is 22 square miles.
I wonder why you and i have such disparate numbers.
Population density, number of people per square klic.
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