Apparently, this story has been debunked. That is good freaking news. Check it out (UPDATE ALL IN ORANGE):
UPDATE: Dispelling the Bin Laden Options Trades (hat tip David)
The blogosphere and options trading desks have been rife with speculation about these trades, which are unusually large bets that the market will make a huge move in the next month. Some entity, or entities, has taken a large position on extremely deep in the money S&P 500 options, both puts and calls, that won't pay off unless the market undergoes an extremely large price move between now and the options' expiration on Sept. 21.
However, Dan Perper, a Partner at Peak 6, one of the largest option market makers and proprietary trading firms, has confirmed that the trades are part of a "box-spread trade."
"This was done as a package in which the box spread was used [as a] means of alternative financing at more attractive interest rates" explained Perper.
Simply put, two parties agree to trade the box at a price that essentially splits the difference between current rates.
From Pamela, at Atlas Shrugs:
Can't ignore this. Laid out all the signs here. And you notice there has been no mention, no follow up of this?
$1 Billion in Risky Stock Market Transactions Similar to Pre-9/11 Activity...
In the weeks preceding the 2001 attacks on America, there were very
significant financial warning signs that something big – and bad – could be
about to happen. Huge surges in purchases of “put options” on stocks of United
Airlines and American Airlines, the two airlines used in the attacks, and “put
options” on Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley, stocks of two financial
services companies hurt by the attack were noted. Put options are essentially
“bets” that a stock or stock index will drop on or before a certain date; the
larger the drop, the bigger the gain for the purchaser of the option.
Fast forward to the present day, and we have the same type of trading
that took place in the days that preceded the 9/11 attacks – but on a larger
scale. Nearly $1 billion of “put options” have been purchased, basically betting
that Standard and Poor's 500 index will fall significantly by the third Friday
in September. A large number of these options have also been purchased calling
for 50% decline by September 21, 2007. For example, a 5% drop in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average would be the current equivalent of about 670 points. A
decline of 11% would equal about 1,470 points in today’s market. Obviously,
larger drops, such as a 50% decline, would cause an unprecedented market
collapse. Money would be made for the purchaser(s) of the put options – but the
same purchaser(s) stand to lose over $1 BILLION in the investment if the market
remains relatively static through September 21, 2007.
UPDATE: Syn notes in the comment section:
Bill Roggio noted recently that many of the Islamist training camps now located
in Warzistan have all but emptied out, much like what was observed when Islamist
training camps were emptied out a month before 9/11/2001
A 50% drop in the Stock Market?!?
What kind of event would cause that, pray tell?
Isn't this just such a fun blog to read?
Have a nice day, everybody.