Woman standing outside a surrounded Crimean Ukrainian base for BORDER GUARDS, few of whom are armed even with automatic weapons. Most have pistols, some are unarmed.
The potential, in the event the Russians storm this base per their overheard ultimatum, for a completely changed, and out of control situation is REAL.
Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia all republics out of the USSR and/or Warsaw Pact, all at one time invaded and overrun by Russians and OR the USSR all have historical fact to justify their fears and actions if this situation proceeds in a negative and unplanned manner.
In plane crashes what almost always occurs is a series of very unlikely events, compounded SOMETIMES by human error under pressure of these VERY low probability, and unpredictable events.
Those who feel this is far away and not worrisome in their own lives are IGNORANT. It is not any action the US will take militarily which will take this out of control, it is the potential cascade of unlikely events among all the local actors, some of whom are now NATO allies.
The first of these can easily be the resistance of the men inside such bases surrounded by their wives and children, to Russian Spetznaz and infantry, abandoned, alone, and turning some lowly Crimean border guards base, into an Alamo.
What calculations Putin is making, because I believe he will NEVER give up the Crimea and Sevastopol, had better include what to do if this occurs.
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