Since Vaccination (COVID) Peaks Have All Been Higher, and They Are Increasing With Each Peak

 

we can now see that winter peak 2020-1 was lower than the april 2020 peak.

we can also see that current case levels are rising fast and early this summer.

the absolute level is VERY high and has already eclipsed the summer seasonal peak from last year by ~100%.

we’re not “down 25%” we’re “up 100%” and rising fast.

we’re already above the 2020-21 seasonal peak for winter and look to have a real shot at reaching/exceeding the seasonal peak from winter 2021-22, a peak that was over 3X as high as the prior year’s.

that’s deeply aberrant and it’s being masked by a plummeting testing rate.

US case counts are exploding.

this next one gets a little busy, but it’s also quite revelatory.

green lines are peak to peak or peak to current. red are from 6/27/22 to the same date a year and 2 years before so you can see where we are in expected seasonal cycle.

the peak of winter in 2020-1 dropped about 25% from prior year.

then vaccination started. the next winter peak was 2.29X.

the summer peak in 2021 was over 1.5X the size of the prior unvaxxed year.

and this year, in the post booster omicron age, is going absolutely wild.

it’s over 10X the same day last year.

it’s ~2X last year’s summer PEAK and peak cases are a solid 6 weeks away, maybe 8 if seasonality holds.

it looks to have a real shot at making new all time highs.

prior to vaccination, peaks were lower than prior year.

since vaccination, they have ALL been higher.

and the extent to which they are higher is increasing with each peak.

GRTWT.