Complete failure of intel has responsibility for leading to this situation

Lilach Shoval looks at the issue of how Israeli intelligence services failed to see this tragedy of the Hamas assault coming:

The Simchat Torah attack is the 2023 version of the 1973 Yom Kippur war. The complete surprise – the governing paradigm, the collapse of the lines of defense – is very reminiscent of what happened here exactly 50 years ago.

In a well-synchronized and orchestrated move, Hamas managed to surprise even the best and brightest in Israeli intelligence and completely toppled the Gaza Division's doctrine, which relied in recent years on the security barrier that gave a false sense of security.

A similar scenario, involving infiltration, kidnapping, and a killing spree carried out under the auspices of massive rocket fire, has been discussed in recent years by the top brass in the IDF, only in regard to the northern border, after Hassan Nasrallah publicly announced in that he intends to "conquer the Galilee" – that is, to cross the border, enter residential towns and villages and kidnap civilians and soldiers. But no one expected that the evil would start from the south, and without any intelligence warning.

Ten hours after the start of the events – these are several of the difficult questions that someone will be forced to give answers at the investigative committees that will be established when the disaster is over.

Q: Where was the intelligence?

This is the first question that cries out to the sky. Just like 50 years ago, even if the intelligence had real signs of such an operation, these were not converted into actionable intelligence, and this complacency blew up in our faces with a colossal intelligence failure.

In the last few weeks, and even in the last few days, senior army officials have been heard talking about the fact that Hamas is not interested in escalating its relations with Israel and emphasized that the fact that thousands of workers enter Israel every day restrains the organization's leaders that are controlling Gaza, which wants to ensure the welfare of its residents.

Even though Hamas carried out a live drill of a crisis on the fence in the last two weeks, the intelligence assessment did not change. As part of that exercise, Hamas sent hundreds of rioters to violent demonstrations, similar to the violent Friday protests held in the months before the COVID-19 pandemic. A few days ago, and after several pinpointed signal attacks, the IDF believed that the problem had been solved when the minister of defense gave the order to continue permitting the entrance of workers into Israeli territory.

Not only that but according to a military assessment of the situation, the IDF, the strongest army in the Middle East, which prides itself on good intelligence in our region and perhaps in the entire world, reduced its forces in the Gaza Strip in recent months and transferred them to Judea and Samaria in order to deal with the wave of murderous terrorism. And when the intelligence did not give any warning, even not a hint, the IDF top brass did not train the troops, did not order the deployment of Iron Domes, and this most serious incident caught most of the senior IDF commanders at home.

Like in the Yom Kippur War, the entire political and security leadership is accountable for the failure. The dire result is that even hours after the start of the attack, which erupted at 6:30 AM, there were still besieged towns, terrorists barricading themselves in houses, and a significant number of civilians and soldiers who had been kidnapped and taken into Gaza.

There's more to ponder, but for now, this is very grave, right down to how the army themselves don't seem to have been present at the Gaza perimeter, or seen the enemy approaching it. A really responsible intel service would've recognized and even made publicly clear that letting down our guard anywhere and everywhere could lead to such a situation. Instead, they downplayed the seriousness of the issue. Those responsible will have to resign and apologize. The IDF may have cleared all towns of vermin. But this fiasco is going to have a terrible after-effect for years to come.