Thursday, January 26, 2012

No Depression

So tell me, if 13,000,000 remain unemployed. And economists expect to add 160,00o jobs a month next year. How long until all those unemployed are back to work?

(hint -- 81 months. 6.77 years. a damn sight longer than the 99 weeks everyone bitches about)

And that unemployment number does not include those who have fallen off the unemployment benefits roster, who have quit looking.

So double it all. At least.

Fox:

Weekly jobless benefit claims rise amid overall downward trend
The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, up from a nearly four-year low the previous week. But the longer-term trend is pointing to a healthier job market.

Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Some economists say the figures suggest further job gains ahead.

The nation has added at least 100,000 jobs for six straight months. And the unemployment rate has declined to 8.5 percent, its lowest in almost three years.

Separately, orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rose as companies spent more on computers, machinery and other equipment. The Commerce Department said Thursday that durable goods orders rose 3 percent last month.

Stock market futures rose after the durable goods report.

"There is more horsepower to this economy than most believe," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands. "The stars are aligned right for a meaningful economic recovery."

The number of first-time unemployment applications rose 21,000 last week (midnight rider interrupts -- they actually rose 24,000 over last week because, what Fox/AP shilling for the administration fails to mention here is that last week's number was once again quietly adjusted up from 352,000 to 355,00. not that it matters since it's all crap anyway), the Labor Department said. Applications had plummeted two weeks ago to their lowest level since April 2008.

The average has fallen about 9 percent since Oct. 1.

Unemployment applications have been particularly volatile this month because employers have cut temporary workers hired for the holidays. The department adjusts for seasonal trends. But doing so accurately can be difficult.

But underneath all the volatility, applications have leveled off in recent weeks.

Steven Wood, an economist at Insight Economics, said the longer-term trend suggests that the January jobs report, to be released next week, will show a "solid gain" in hiring.

"The labor market is improving, albeit slowly," Wood said in a note to clients.

Economists forecast that the nation will gain about 160,000 jobs a month in 2012, according to a survey of economists by the Associated Press. That's up from an average of about 135,000 last year.

A better outlook for job growth has coincided with other signs of improvement in the economy. Factory output jumped in December, and consumer confidence and spending have risen. Even the battered housing market has shown some signs of slight improvement.

Still, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it expects growth to remain modest this year. And it forecasts only gradual declines the unemployment rate.

The Fed predicts the unemployment rate could fall as low as 8.2 percent by the end of 2012. The economy will likely expand about 2.5 percent this year.

The job market has a long way to go before it fully recovers from the damage of the Great Recession, which wiped out 8.7 million jobs. More than 13 million people remain unemployed. Millions more have given up looking for work and so are no longer counted as unemployed.

Growth could slow this year. Europe is almost certain to fall into recession because of its financial troubles. And wages aren't keeping up with inflation. That makes it harder for consumers to spend more, potentially limiting growth.






FUCK YER HOPE AND CHANGE

2 comments:

jeppo said...

Feds Had Better Stop Alabama…Before Everyone There Has a Job!

Oh no! It’s happened again. Alabama’s unemployment rate continues to plummet.

Ever since Alabama began implementing its immigration enforcement law, H.B. 56, in late September, the state’s unemployment rate has been dropping like a stone. In just the first month the law was in effect, unemployment in Alabama shrank from 9.8 percent of the workforce to 9.3 percent. And now the latest figures are in…and the news couldn’t be worse (for the Obama administration, the illegal alien lobby, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that is): Alabama’s unemployment rate checked in at 8.1 percent in December. That’s more than a 17 percent reduction since September.

No wonder the Department of Justice sued Alabama and its Civil Rights division continues to harass state agencies, even though the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals has agreed that all but a few provisions of the law could go into effect. Illegal aliens are responding to the law by leaving, which is not what the Obama administration or the illegal alien lobby want. And lots of jobs being vacated by illegal aliens are being filled by American workers, which is not exactly good news to cheap labor interests which have insisted that only illegal aliens would do those jobs.

Why the next thing you know, other states might get the idea that they too can reduce illegal immigration, tame unemployment, and cut costs by enacting similar policies. People might even start to wonder why the federal government isn’t doing it.

Epaminondas said...

So what if the jobs numbers come all the way back in 8 years?

You'll be working at Dunkin' Donuts, not GE's ultrasound engineering labs.

You'll be the Walmart greeter, hanging on, not installing new IT equipment at Pratt and Whitney

And if you EXCEL - You'll be the new administrative assistant at the local federal and state counseling services bureau for family intervention not the materials manager for the new company making nearly frictionless bearings for an american headquartered private aut industry

The people who make airplane airplane wings, and design bridges, and refine drugs, and help to provide stimulating challenging careers CANNOT GO TO DUNKIN DONUTS 35 hours a week and make a better america for their family and children, all they can do is hang on till they die.

THAT IS WHAT IS BEING KILLED RIGHT IN FRONT OF OUR EYES