As of this writing, 32 weeks have elapsed in 2020. However, for each previous year, 52 weeks have already elapsed. How then can we compare deaths from all causes in 2020 to previous years? I divided the total number of deaths for each year by the number of weeks.
That is 52 weeks for all years, except for 2020, in which 32 weeks have elapsed as of this past Saturday, August 8, 2020, which is the most recently updated week in the CDC data cited.
This gives us the average number of deaths per week for each of those years, and allows a meaningful comparison between 2020 and prior years. CDC data provides deaths from all causes for all previous years in the 21st century.
The CDC also provides data for all-cause deaths in 2020. (8) Column D of Table 1 shows the total deaths divided by the number of weeks in the year to obtain an average number of deaths for each week in that particular year. That is calculated for all 21 years (2000 through 2020).
32 weeks for 2020 is highlighted to draw attention to that difference from the other years.
It is important to factor in the growing US population over the last two decades. The US population for each year is given in Column E. Column G shows the ratio of total weekly deaths per US population for each of the first 21 years of the 21st century.
A comparison of the percentages in Column G are best seen in Graph 1 below.
If COVID-19 is genuinely the deadly pandemic that it is widely thought to be, then total deaths would not only be a little higher than usual, but would be much greater during the period of its peak incidence and closely following weeks.
It is not possible to have a deadly pandemic rage through a population without increasing the total number of all-cause deaths during the year of its peak incidence, because there is no reason for alternate causes of death, (heart disease, cancer, etc) to simultaneously decline.
Therefore, if deaths are not significantly increased above previous years for a given region, then there has been no pandemic, nor even an epidemic there. On the contrary, what has been found is that so far there are fewer deaths per week in 2020, than in any other year since 2009.
Although some of this lower death rate may be due to reporting lag, that lag is likely too small to explain the considerably lower weekly death rate in 2020 than in previous years. It seems that there is no pandemic in 2020 of COVID-19 or of anything else, at least not in the United States.