Thursday, June 26, 2008

Israel, Iran and the law of untintended consequence - the day after

We have all read of the CBS report that Israel has told Bush that if Iran is not stopped diplomatically before an Obama might take office, they will.

Bill O'Reilly has taken the day after this attack and postulated the political, economic, and military isolation of Israel, and the economic collapse of the world's totally interlocked economy as oil prices double or worse in 24 hours or less after such an attack. (Wish we were drilling everywhere yet?)

1) Can the world economy take an Iran attacked and oil prices doubling? Will oil double?
2) Would Obama revert to Middle East policies before 1967, i.e;, an arms embargo in the ME?

Free Online Poll


Pastorius said...

Iran is the third leading exporter of oil in the world. However, there are so many countries exporting oil that Iran's percentage of the total market is something around 3%, if I remember correctly. (I've added this up previously, but am unable to find the numbers today.)

Therefore, an interruption of Iran's oil supply should only effect the market by a few percentage points. Now, of course, market forces are not completely reasonable in the short run, but they are in the long run.

I think this story is scare-mongering on the part of Bill O'Reilly.

And, who do I think the scare-mongering is directed at?

The Jews.

O'Reilly ought to be ashamed of himself. He knows he can get ratings with the idea that Israel's policy is going to screw up the world's oil markets.

I hope he enjoys his money.

Damien said...

Its a sad fact that if Israel attack Iran in self defense, they would be blamed for Iran's hostilities and skyrocketing gas prices.

Unknown said...

"Iran is OPEC’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia. In 2006, Iran produced an estimated
4.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of total liquids, of which 3.8 million bbl/d was crude oil, equal to
5 percent of global production."

A report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) considered a pro-Israel lobby think tank, asserts that Iran could block the Persian Gulf but not indefinitely. The Persian Gulf ships nearly two-fifths of the world's crude oil.

Plus, other oil importers would need to boost production to make up for lost Iranian exports.

While Iranian oil may not severely dent the world economy the unintended consequences of an attack would surely have a major impact on world gas prices.

We have an addiction. It's called oil dependency. How long will America sell out its interests to foreign powers before we invest in alternative sustainable fuels?