If the american people perceive that at the solution point when these bad assets are eventually sold off (see the finale of the Resolution Trust Company) the stockholders and decision makers that brought us all to this point are made whole, Obama will win big.
That greed is enraging a lot of poeple
If the people perceive that the democratic actions IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS protect the citizens and the admin is working to protect the 'large' (Henry Paulson is an ex CEO of Goldman Sachs) and the 'system', then Obama will win.
If any democratic action at this point is perceived to be politics BECAUSE OF THE ELECTION, they are dead.
If the people perceive that McCain's reformist vision ensures the citizens will be the gainers by footing the risk in this bailout McCain will win.
On balance McCain's task is much harder, and even though much of the blame here should fall on the oversight of the Clinton Admin, on Barney Frank, and other democrats, this admin and the republicans will be felt to be responsible.
McCain did not do a good job on this last week.
Obama did no job.
Obama gained because McCain lost and we are now precisely where we were before the convention, except for one thing. While this election looks like it's going to be over Colorado, Obama's 0.4% lead there is now >2%.
As before, in what should easily be a sweeping year for democrats, it's Obama's to lose.
Unless, of course, we are attacked