Monday, September 22, 2008

Who is going to win the election now depends on one thing only

That 'thing' is the american people's perception of who has something to gain from the huge risk entailed by the gigantor buyout and bailout.

If the american people perceive that at the solution point when these bad assets are eventually sold off (see the finale of the Resolution Trust Company) the stockholders and decision makers that brought us all to this point are made whole, Obama will win big.

That greed is enraging a lot of poeple

If the people perceive that the democratic actions IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS protect the citizens and the admin is working to protect the 'large' (Henry Paulson is an ex CEO of Goldman Sachs) and the 'system', then Obama will win.

If any democratic action at this point is perceived to be politics BECAUSE OF THE ELECTION, they are dead.

If the people perceive that McCain's reformist vision ensures the citizens will be the gainers by footing the risk in this bailout McCain will win.

On balance McCain's task is much harder, and even though much of the blame here should fall on the oversight of the Clinton Admin, on Barney Frank, and other democrats, this admin and the republicans will be felt to be responsible.
McCain did not do a good job on this last week.

Obama did no job.

Obama gained because McCain lost and we are now precisely where we were before the convention, except for one thing. While this election looks like it's going to be over Colorado, Obama's 0.4% lead there is now >2%.

As before, in what should easily be a sweeping year for democrats, it's Obama's to lose.

Unless, of course, we are attacked


SamenoKami said...

Most Americans know absolutely nothing about economics/finance. This high-finance stuff is boring and way over average heads. We will vote on paycheck/inflation issues but the bailout is somebody else's problem, not Joe Sixpack's.

This who's up/down poll stuff is too far out unless you maybe consider the velocity of the movements. The only real poll is election day. Polls on Fri/Mon before the election may be close, but we still have the Bradley effect of people saying 'Yes, I love Obama' so as not to be seen as 'racist' who then vote for McCain when behind the curtain.

If the polls on Mon/Tues show Obama winning but he then loses, it'll be- "The white man stole the election from the brother!!" and the riots will begin. I'm saving some vacation days for just that scenario. Of course if Obama wins there will also be riots as there are after Detroit wins the basketball championship.

Epaminondas said...

You may be right.

According to some people the only reason the race is close is race.

Redneck Texan said...

On the bright side..... I think this, by nullifying the Palin bounce, increases the likelihood of an October attack on Iran.