Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Iran & The Bomb: Arms Control Wonk

ArmsControlWonk has three long and detailed posts on Iran's nuclear program. It's required reading, complete with excellent maps and diagrams.

Warning, this is a self-proclaimed wonk and these posts are considerably geeked out on the technicalities and scientific side of this issue. Not casual reading. Still, I found his post well worth my time.

Part 1: How Close is Iran to the Bomb?
Part 2: Iran's Missiles
Part 3: Strike Options


Jason Pappas said...

The 1st article is interesting. But it’s still not clear to me who knows about Iran’s program. According to the middle of the article, it is 3 years before they have a nuke, but the article starts out saying it is 10 years. The conclusion is that you can always plan on delays. Oddly enough, no mention is made of when the cut-off point is for stopping the program. Many say it can’t be done after a certain point without horrendous casualties. How close are we to that point?

The author in the 3rd article purposely says one should wait until the latter stages. That makes me suspicious. He says it is useless now and will only increase their determination. But Israel’s bombing of Saddam’s program did push it back a decade. In ’91 we found the program back on track; but that decade made the difference. Imagine responding to Kuwait in the face of nuclear arsenal? This author seems intent on rationalizing inaction. This is discomforting particularly since he’s worked for a disarmament group. I’d like many more opinions from diverse sources.

What seems likely is that the Bush administration will pass this problem on to the next administration if it can help it.

Oscar in Kansas said...

I liked the idea that if you are going to bomb the enrichment facility in Natanz you wait until it's full of centrifuges. We should be able to tell when they install that equipment. Those centrifuges are worth more than gold to the mullahs. Knocking them out would certainly slow down the project.

Kiddo said...

Um, I'm not trying to pimp my own blog here, but I just posted a story from World Net Daily that alarmed me too much to ignore. Ahmadenijad is plotting things beyond our imagination at present. I want to go to Mordor to defeat Sauron at the moment!! Didn't know if you guys had seen this story yet....please weigh in!!

Jason Pappas said...

I'm not sure this link will work (you may have to scroll up or down.) But if it does, Lt. Colonel Rick Francona, a Military Analyst for MSNBC, weighs in on his opinion of the difficulty of a military strike on Iran to destroy their nuclear program.

Jason Pappas said...

Scroll down past Chris Mathews to read the Francona article.

Pastorius said...

Pim's Ghost,
Feel free to pimp your blog here anytime