A very important post, from our man, in Unknownland, Reliapundit, the Astute Blogger:
Long ago I posted that Hizballah and Hamas (and other jiahdoterrorist groups) are proxies who are funded by and operate on behest of Iran. THIS STORY from the NY's paper of record seems to bear that out - OMINOUSLY SO. EXCERPT:
The nationwide effort to neutralize Hezbollah sleepers in the United States, being spearheaded by the FBI and Justice Department's counterterrorism divisions, was triggered in January in response to alarming reports that Iran's fanatical president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, met with leaders of Hezbollah and other terror groups during a visit to Syria.
Among those attending the meetings, according to reliable reports, was Hezbollah's chief operational planner, Imad Mugniyah - considered one of the most dangerous terrorists in the world - who is responsible for the bombings of the 1983 U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and who, more recently, provided Iraqi guerrillas with sophisticated explosive devices.
The interface between state's like Iran and jihadothugs like Mugniyah remains the gravest threat to Western Civilization. (Followed by the fact that Europeans and Russians are NOT having children.)
I have long argued that Iran will try to ignite an Israeli-Arab War as a diversion. Israel's unilateral separation negates that, somewhat - by allowing Israel to reinforce defenses on its most important national assets by allowing redeployment of military assets from places that require a disproportionate amount of protection for their relative value, (namely the smaller West bank settlements). They will soon be impregnable.
The endgame is advancing on many fronts: as Iraq stabilizes the USA and UK can redeploy troops in ways that put more pressure on Iran - and Syria; we are honing in on the murderous Bashar - a final report on the Hariri assassination is due in a few weeks; we are pressuring Syria to finalize its borders with Israel and Lebanon; Israel's new government will begin withdrawals from the West Bank; the UNSC will pass another anti-Iran-nuke resolution; a major Coalition offensive is rolling up jihadothugs in Afghanistan; and so on.
The wild card is all the 12th Iman BS: the feeling that Ahmadinejad will PREEMPTIVELY attack the West in order to bring on the catclysm he and his fellow cult members believe will bring on the appearance of the 12th Iman.
Some people feel that his letters to Bush and the Pope presage a preemptive attack - and perhaps even a nuclear one.
I don't consider this likely.
I feel that if Iran had nukes already that they would NOT be "acting out" so much; for example, a poker-player with a winning hand doesn't smirk and gloat and challenge his opponents (because they'll just fold, and he'll NOT win a large pot). NO, someone who holds a winning hand wants his opponents to think he's holding BAD cards, and is nervous, and unsure - so that the pot will get bigger.
That's why Ahmadinejad's bluster and dare seems hollow to me, phony. FOR THE TIME BEING. Of course, given how the mullahs feel about their rights to have nukes, it's only a matter of time before they do get'em, UNLESS we:
(1) preemptively attack their nuke assets; or
(2) foment REGIME CHANGE INTERNALLY.
The latter is of course preferential. After all, nukes themselves are not dangerous; their danger is purely a matter of who controls them. If a sensible, rational, international law-abiding/Universal Human Rights observing Iran had nukes I would not worry very much. But the fact is that Iran right now cannot be trusted with nukes and must not be allowed to get them.
Preemptively attacking them seems the MOST likely thing that will happen. If the GOP loses the House, then I expect us to attack before Christmas 2006 - (before Speaker Pelosi and Chairman Conyers initiate impeachment proceedings). In any event, Bush will NOT leave this problem for the next president to solve; therefore the outside date for action is January 5th, 2009. So that the Free World won't have to depend on President Hillary (God forbid!).
NOTE: The POSSIBLILITY of a preemptive attack by the end of this year IS ALL THE MORE REASON WE WILL SEE WITHDRAWALS OF US AND UK TROOPS FROM IRAQ: our troops in Iraq are the most likely retaliatory target - they would be the closest and largest target for the Iranians to hit.
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